【when this creature enters the battlefield】Netflix in 2019: Bulls Get Even in Odd-Numbered Years

Entertainment 2024-09-29 08:23:26 514

Netflix

(NASDAQ: NFLX)

【when this creature enters the battlefield】Netflix in 2019: Bulls Get Even in Odd-Numbered Years


closed out 2018 in encouraging fashion. Its 4.5% surge on Monday made it the

【when this creature enters the battlefield】Netflix in 2019: Bulls Get Even in Odd-Numbered Years


S&P 500

【when this creature enters the battlefield】Netflix in 2019: Bulls Get Even in Odd-Numbered Years


's biggest gainer for the day. Thewhen this creature enters the battlefield leading premium video streaming had a strong year for its stockholders, up a scintillating 39.4% in 2018. It was the best-performing FAANG stock, bucking the general market's malaise. Netflix


nearly cracked the top 10


of the year's biggest gainers in the S&P 500, but investors probably aren't satisfied.


The stock had more than doubled when it peaked in June. Netflix went on to close 37% below the all-time high it hit a little more than six months earlier. It's still a blowout year. Most investors would take a nearly 40% pop in a down year. However, there's a tart aftertaste to the performance. History suggests that the year ahead could be better.


The cast of Sense 8 raising glasses to make a toast.


Image source: Netflix.


The odd couple


Taking out the measuring tape to size up Netflix returns over the past few years shows a trend of big gains in odd-numbered years.


2013: 298%


2014: (7%)


2015: 134%


2016: 8%


2017: 55%


2018: 39%


Netflix was the S&P 500's biggest gainer in 2013 and then again in 2015. It failed to deliver the three-peat in 2017, but the stock still trounced the market with its 55% spike that year. This brings us to 2019, and the company's putting the stock in a great spot to succeed again.


The year begins with Netflix near the top of the app marketplaces. The


surprising success of


Bird Box


-- with a third of Netflix's 135.1 million subscribers checking out the dystopian flick in its first week of streaming availability -- is turning heads. The gaming nature of


Black Mirror


's new "Bandersnatch" interactive episode where viewers get to stream various story paths along the way is also opening the door for new ways to make streaming television even more engaging.


None of this means that Netflix will move up in 2019. The stock got crushed in 2011, the year of the infamous Qwikster fiasco. It's easy to write off the stock's success in 2013, 2015, and 2017 as simply a coincidence. However, you will probably see conspiracy theorists and fans of odd numbers start to get giddy if Netflix comes through with another blowout quarter in two weeks.


Fundamentally, Netflix is hitting all of the right buttons to start off the new year.


Bird Box


and


Black Mirror


's gave it back-to-back hits in the final two weeks of December, and on Tuesday, it announced a summertime release date for the new season of


Stranger Things


. Netflix is making its service that much more essential, and we may be at the point where the fears of the


rival services


set to debut later this year are overblown.


Story continues


2019 is going to be a good year for Netflix the company. It should also be a strong year for Netflix the stock -- but only because the dot-com darling is in a strong position to bounce back since correcting sharply through the latter half of 2018. It's not fate. It's not luck. It's just a bar-raising company getting back on track.


More From The Motley Fool


10 Best Stocks to Buy Today


Rick Munarriz


owns shares of Netflix. The Motley Fool owns shares of and recommends Netflix. The Motley Fool has a


disclosure policy


.


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5%, led by a 17% increase in average ticket and a slight decline in traffic. Growth in the quarter reflected the impact of households stocking up on essentials like paper goods and cleaning supplies as the pandemic became a nationwide concern, along with strength in discretionary categories as the quarter came to a close and stimulus dollars and tax refunds were disbursed.


As shown below, the results in the quarter materially changed the trend in two-year stacked comps for each of the banners, along with a significant acceleration for consolidated comps.


The increase in consolidated comps was the primary driver of an 8% increase in revenues to $6.3 billion. The company ended the quarter with 15,370 locations, up less than 1% year-over-year. This reflects a 7% increase in Dollar Tree units, offset by a 4% decline in Family Dollar units.


The top-line results at each banner flowed through to their respective income statements, with Dollar Tree gross margins and operating margins declining year-over-year while Family Dollar gross margins and operating margins expanded year-over-year. On a consolidated basis, gross margins contracted by 120 basis points in the quarter to 28.5%, reflective of a shift to lower-margin consumables, tariff costs and the impact of markdowns from the Easter headwinds at the Dollar Tree banner. The company saw slight operating leverage on SG&A from higher comps, with the net result being an 80 basis point contraction in operating margins to 5.8%, with operating income declining 5% to $366 million. This is not adjusted for $73 million of pandemic-related costs, such as PPE supplies.


In the first quarter, the company opened 85 stores (net of closures) and completed 220 Family Dollar renovations to the H2 format. Importantly, comps at renovated Family Dollar stores continue to outpace the chain average by more than 10%. On the call, management indicated that they plan on reducing both the number of new store openings (from 550 to 500) and the number of H2 renovations (from 1,250 to 750) in 2020.


Personally, given the fact that Family Dollar is seeing material benefits to its business from the pandemic with new or lapsed customers coming into its stores, I think the company should try to get more aggressive with its renovation plans, not less. On the other hand, you could argue that renovations cause short-term disruptions and limit their ability to fully capitalize on the business momentum they are currently experiencing.


As a result of fewer new stores and remodels, management now expects 2020 capital expenditures to total $1.0 billion compared to previous guidance of $1.2 billion. In addition, the company has temporarily suspended share repurchases. At quarter's end, the company had $1.8 billion in cash on its balance sheet compared to $4.3 billion in total debt.


Conclusion


In recent years, Dollar Tree has been a tale of two cities. While its namesake banner has generally delivered impressive financial results, Family Dollar has been a persistent underperformer. This quarter, those results flipped, and given what we've seen in the weeks since quarter's end, there's a decent possibility that we will see something similar in the coming months. As the CEO noted, the second quarter is off to a very good start at Family Dollar.


Here's the important question: how useful is that information is in terms of making future predictions about the business? Will recent success at Family Dollar translate into long-term success for the banner? The optimistic take is that new or lapsed customers, especially those visiting the renovated stores, could become recurring business for the banner. The pessimistic take is that they have experienced short-term success out of necessity as people went to any store that was open to try and find essentials like toilet paper and hand sanitizer that were largely out of stock throughout the retail landscape. From that view, many of these customers could abandon the retailer when life returns to normal. As Philbin noted on the conference call, early on [during the pandemic], folks needed us. Will people still shop as much at Family Dollar when it's no longer a necessity?


Personally, I do not place too much weight on the recent results. I will need to see incremental data points that indicate that Family Dollar has truly won sustained business from these new customers. While I still believe that the Dollar Tree banner is a well-positioned retailer with attractive unit returns, I'm not yet willing to say the same thing for Family Dollar. For that reason, along with the recent run-up in the stock price, I plan on staying on the sidelines for now.


Disclosure: None


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